Opinion polls, election surveys, and voter apathy in 2023 Nigeria’s presidential election

Abstract

This paper examines the nature, dynamics, and impact of opinion polls, election surveys, and voter apathy in 2023 the Presidential elections in Nigeria. The objective of the paper is to interrogate data on opinion polls and election surveys to understand the narrative being used in trying to reshape and influence public opinions in Nigeria before the 2023 general elections. The research method used in the paper is the documentary research approach and direct observations. The paper is anchored on Dankwart Rostow’s dynamic model of democracy transition as a theoretical framework for analysis. The findings of the paper reveal that there is growing concern and consistency of voter apathy in Nigeria's democratic experiment with the 2023 general elections as the worst-case scenario at 28 percent voter turnout. Moreover, the opinion polls conducted before the elections mostly lacked methodological rigor in sample size, relied heavenly on social media surveys and the outcome was error-ridden and biased, and could not predict correctly. The All Progressives Congress (APC), the government party, has a Muslim/Muslim presidential ticket, which heavily influences election campaigns to be religious-based rather than issue-based. The failure of BVAS and INEC to transmit the presidential election results live fell short of Nigerians' expectations and compromised the integrity of the electoral process. The paper concludes with the recommendations that opinion polls be conducted by experts, the need for massive voter education in Nigeria, and the unbundling of INEC to address logistical and administrative challenges.